Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 18 July 2016


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The equity benchmark has opened in a Positive bias on Monday with 50 Shares Nifty50 up 90 points or 1.05 per cent at 8413


TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )

NIFTY FIFTY : The equity benchmark has opened in a Positive bias on Monday with 50 Shares Nifty50 up 90 points or 1.05 per cent at 8413. The Nifty50 reclaimed its Crucial level of 8400 for the first time in last 10 Month. The Nifty 50 had managed to Sustain above its major Support of 8250 last week and we are Expecting this Support will remain intact this week too. Quarter1 of FY17 Results would be Important data point Investors are waiting for. Though this is likely to become a huge Trigger for the Market in General. The US Job Market data For June blew everyone’s mind, After crushing to 38,000 in may In June the US created 2,87,000 additional jobs. The traction in Indian Equities continue to be strong aided by a rally in Global Equities. As the risk of rise in interest rate in developed market recedes. The Bank of England keep interest rate unchanged. In such a scenario, The Nifty 50 is likely to follow suit and make new high soon. Move beyond 8600 is likely to take the index higher up to 8900 levels. The crucial levels for Nifty is 8680-8750 is up side and 8420-8530 downside.


BANK NIFTY: - The Bank Nifty opened in a positive note on Monday up by 252 point or 1.36 per cent at 18268. The Reserve Bank of India is bracing for a fight on proposed charges to the global regulatory framework that would hit the Country’s lenders with higher capital charges for the mountain of Govt. debt on their book. Retail borrower seems to be moving towards private Sector lenders to meet their loan needs. Ramping up their market share to 43 percent while the Public Sector Banks is falling as per report. State owned lenders saddled with bad loans are focused less on Growth say report. The Govt. Has setup a committee to work with Banks on settlement of NPA as it sought to put in place an action plan to clean up the books of lenders and comfort them through and oversight mechanism. The Bank Nifty seems positive in daily chart for next week. The crucial levels for Bank Nifty is 19220-19450 up side and 18500-18750 down side.

 

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

?TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Consumer SME loan Market to reach $ 3 trillion in 10 Years - Report - With the government taking various initiatives for hassle-free and cashless financial transactions, the consumer and SME loan market is expected to grow to $3,020 billion over the next decade, says a Credit Suisse report. As per the report by the Swiss brokerage, the domestic financial landscape is likely to transform mainly on the back of government initiatives like Jan Dhan, Aadhaar and the unified payment interface, as also rising mobile penetration. "These initiatives have created backbone for instantaneous, inter-operable, cashless financial transactions. We estimate the consumer and SME loan market will grow from $ 600 billion to $ 3,020 billion over the next decade," the report said.

 

GST a 'brahmastra' for India to tackle globally difficult times: Assocham - As the Winter Session of Parliament began today, industry body Assocham appealed to the Opposition parties to help in the passage of GST bill as it can be a 'brahmastra' for India in challenging global times. "Goods and Services Tax is a key 'brahmastra' for our GDP. Lawmakers across parties should pass the Constitutional Amendment Bill on GST without further delay," the new Assocham President Sunil Kanoria said. "This would send a strong signal to investors that India's economy can overcome serious global challenges with political will,"He said the economy was affected by demand slowdown, uncertain geopolitical situation after the Paris terror attacks, and an unprecedented crash in vital commodities. "GST will harmonise indirect taxes by doing away with multiplicity of taxes. It will also reduce cost of production, which will be then passed on consumers, thus lowering inflation. More striking would be the display of a political unity and the will to rise up to national cause," he said. Timely implementation of GST would raise the GDP by 1.5 to 2 per cent, Kanoria said adding the Opposition should not change their earlier stance.

 

India's June WPI at 1.62%, food articles inflation at 8.18% - Wholesale inflation rose further in June because of pricier vegetables and a small uptick in manufactured goods, suggesting that industry is getting some respite from declining prices. Wholesale inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, rose to 1.62% in June from 0.79% in May, data released by the government on Wednesday showed. Data released on Monday had shown consumer inflation at a 22-month high in June because of spike in inflation in food articles. Wholesale food inflation which jumped to 8.18% led by potatoes and pulses which were dearer by 64.48% and 26.61% respectively from a year ago.

 

Retail inflation to cross 6% before easing from September: HSBC - : Retail inflation is likely to cross the 6 per cent level over next two months but will ease thereafter as food prices abate and the base effect normalises, says a report. According to global financial services major HSBC, the inflation based on Consumer Price Index is expected to cross the 6 per cent year-on-year mark over the next two months, and would ease to 5 per cent from September onwards. "We expect headline CPI inflation to cross the 6 per cent y-o-y mark over the next two months, thanks to a low base from last year. However, inflation is likely to take a turn towards RBI's target of 5 per cent from September onwards as food prices abate and the base normalises," HSBC said in a research note.

 

Banks' gross NPA levels to be at 8-8.5 per cent in FY17: Icra - Gross non-performing loans of banks are nearing peak levels and may be in range of 8-8.5 per cent by March-end, domestic rating agency Icra said today. "Gross NPAs could be nearing peak levels. We project banks' gross NPAs to be in the range of 8-8.5 per cent by March 2017," it said in a report here. Banks' gross bad loans stood at 7.7 per cent as on March 2016. It added asset quality is not expected to improve substantially in near term. "Significant improvement in asset quality will hinge upon economic recovery in credit intensive sectors, as well as successful execution of deleveraging efforts by some stressed corporate groups," he said. The report said credit growth is likely to be in the range of 11-12 per cent in 2016-17, primarily driven by retail and other smaller ticket loans.

 

Indian economy can have 25% share of manufacturing by 2025: Report - India is expected to increase the share of manufacturing in the overall economy to 25 per cent by 2025 from the current 16 per cent on account of various measures taken by the government, Dun & Bradstreet said today. The various steps taken by the government in terms of measures for ease of doing business, creation of conducive environment for the manufacturing activities, focus on improving industrial policies and FDI enhancement would aid in reviving the manufacturing sector manufacturing sector and achieving global competitiveness, it said in a statement. "We expect India to realise the target of 25 per cent share of manufacturing in overall economy at best by 2025. Going forward, changing economics of production and distribution and frequent shifts in consumer demand will require manufacturers to adopt new process and make new products," Arun Singh, Lead Economist, Dun & Bradstreet India, said.

 

India Inc's foreign investment down 3% to $ 1.86 billion in June - Direct investments by Indian firms abroad fell by 3.2 per cent year-on-year to $1.86 billion in June this year, according to RBI data. Indian companies had invested $1.92 billion in their overseas ventures in June 2015. In May 2016, Indian firms had invested $ 2.69 billion as overseas investment. The investments were in the form of issuance of guarantees $1 billion, loans 246.51 million and equity $610.87 million. The prominent investors overseas during the month include Tata Communications $ 483 million in a fully-owned subsidiary in Mauritius and Strides Acrolab Ltd which committed $ 130.16 million in the wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore. Tata Communications also invested $ 67 million in two separate wholly-owned units in Singapore.

 

 

 

?TOP ECONOMY NEWS

Business activity in the services sector grew at its second slowest pace in the last 12 months and the Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index recorded 50.3 in June.

 

Merger & acquisition deals involving Indian companies increased 82% in the first half of 2016 at USD 27 billion in the first half of 2016, the highest in the first six months in any year since 2011 led by a four and a half time increase of Indian acquisitions abroad at USD 4.5 billion.

 

The Finance Ministry has imposed definitive anti-dumping duty on purified terephthalic acid imports from China, Iran, Taiwan and Indonesia.

 

Jharkhand has received 27 investment proposals of Rs. 1 trillion in mining, power, agriculture, food processing, health, education and tourism.

 

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India extended the deadline for comments on the consultation paper on 'Review of Voice Mail/Audiotex/Unified Messaging Services Licence' to July 25 and counter comments to August 8 from the previous deadline of July 11 and counter-comments of July 25.

 

The Index of Industrial Production grew 1.2% in May as against a negative growth of 1.3% in April.

 

Retail inflation inched up to a 22-month high level of 5.77% in June on increase in food prices including that of key kitchen staples like vegetables and cereals.

 

India's fuel demand rose 6.2% in June compared with the same month last year.

 

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas will host roadshows in Houston in the United States of America and Calgary, Canada for the Discovered Small Fields Bid Round 2016.

 

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India has said that a flat spectrum usage charge is the best option, but proposed its own weighted average formula to calculate the annual charge.

 

Government will sell four dated securities for Rs.150 billion using multiple price method.

 

There has been five-time jump to Rs. 25,000 for flyers to buy goods from duty free shops at international airports across the country.

 

?TOP CORPORATE NEWS -

Bharti Airtel is set to extend its 4G footprint to 19 circles in next 3-4 months as it will be launching services in six circles where it acquired spectrum from Videocon Telecommunications.

 

Cipla Limited is investing 1.3 billion South African Rand about Rs. 6 billion in a biotech plant in South Africa as it aims to make cancer drugs affordable and grow its presence in the market.

 

DLFLimitedhas shortlisted six potential buyers for 40% stake of the promoters in its rental arm DLF Cyber City Developers that is expected to sell for about Rs 130 billion.

 

Cadila Healthcare has received Establishment Inspection Report from the US health regulator for its manufacturing facility in Moraiya.

 

Scepticism over the Rs. 48 billion acquisition of Reliance Cementshrouded Birla Corporation’s annual general meeting as shareholders raised questions about the feasibility of the deal as well as its financing.

 

Lupin Limited said US health regulator has voiced minor concerns after completing the inspection of its Dabhasa facility in Gujarat.

 

Cadila Healthcare sees big growth opportunity in US and Latin American formulation markets and plans to enhance share in the US generics market by launching complex, oral solids and formulations.

 

Telecom Ministry is learnt to have cleared the Rs. 35 billion 4G spectrum trading deal between service providers Bharti Airtel and Aircel.

 

Dishman Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals Limited has completely moved away from Vitamin D3 production and has instead entered a high-margin, low volume category of analogs and cholesterol.

 

The Odisha Pollution Control Board has extended the validity of the consent to establish order issued to DLF Limitedby five years.

 

The Coal India Limited board decided to buy back 1.72% of its shares by using Rs. 36.50 billion from its reserves of more than Rs. 380 billion.

 

Vedanta Limited has signed two memoranda of understanding with South African companies for supply of equipment, and transfer of technology to improve safety and productivity at its underground mines of its subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc Limited.

 

Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular -- are kicking their content act into top gear before Reliance Jio Infocomm's launches 4G services commercially.

 

Adani Power Jharkhand unit would supply 1600 MW power to Bangladesh from the proposed plant coming up in Godda district.

 

Cairn Energy parent company of Cairn India Limited has sought USD 5.6 billion in compensation from the Indian government for raising a retrospective tax demand of Rs. 290.47 billion on 10-year-old internal reorganisation of its India unit.

 

Suven Life Sciences Limited has been granted a patent each by India and South Africa for a drug used in the treatment of neuro-degenerative diseases.

 

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited and Hungama have partnered to offer exclusive entertainment service to MTNL’s broadband customers in Delhi and Mumbai.

 

Bharti Airtel, which offers services in 16 African countries, and Apollo Hospitals enterprises Limited have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance healthcare cooperation across Africa.

 

IndusInd Bank Limitedhas opened international banking unit at the International Financial Services Centre in the Gujarat International Finance Tech-City to meet the requirements of offshore banking operations from India.

 

IDFC Bank Limited announced the acquisition of Tamil Nadu-based Grama Vidiyal Microfinance that will help it widen the reach.

 

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries announced the roll-out of Gemcitabine InfuSMART, used in the treatment of cancer, in Europe.

 

Cadila Healthcare Limited, has received final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for Nateglinide tablets USP.

 

Ashok Leyland has bagged orders for supplying nearly 3,600 buses to various state transport units in the current financial year.

 

BEML Limited, has set up a service training centre at its Mysore Complex proving commitment towards ‘Skill India Campaign’.

 

GSPL India Transco Limited, a subsidiary of Gujarat State Petronet Limited, signed a Gas Transportation Agreement with Ramagundam Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited on July 8, 2016, to supply 2MMSCMD of natural gas for a period of 20 years.

 

The government has asked power sector financiers Power Finance Corporation Limited and Rural Electrification Corporation Limited to expand focus on funding renewable energy generation projects, power, coal, renewable energy and mines.

 

Apollo Hospitals has signed a pact with Stanford University to gain insights into cardiovascular risks reduction in South Asians.

 

The Amin Group is set to acquire Jyoti Structures through what will be the first stake sale by the contractor of transmission projects since lenders took its control after a strategic debt restructuring.

 

Promoters of Reliance Communications Limited have pledged 38 million shares at an estimated value of Rs. 1.90 billion before private banks.

 

Greaves Cotton Limited has forayed into multi-brand spares business, which is an extension to its after-market services.

 

Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited or HDFC will issue rupee denominated bonds worth Rs. 20 billion, with a greenshoe option of Rs. 10 billion to foreign investors outside the United States.

 

Inox Wind Limited has bagged an order for supply and commissioning of 50 mw of wind turbines for Atria Wind Power.

 

 

?TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK

The Reserve Bank of India's determined push against banks to recover dues from defaulters has been hobbled by the lack of staff at the Debt Recovery Appellate Tribunal hearing the case of lenders trying to recover over Rs 200 crore of accrued interest from Airbus SAS. Banks have to wait for another couple of months for the next hearing and hope that the vacancies fill up by then. The case is pending at Chennai DRAT for more than two years and senior bank officials said that no hearing took place at the successive scheduled dates as there was no chairperson for quite some time. Last hearing date was July 7 and that too was adjourned without a hearing.

 

IndusInd Bank reported a 26% rise in net profit for the quarter ended June 30, led by strong demand for both commercial and personal loans. The private bank, the first among the main lenders to announce its Q1 results, said net profit increased to Rs. 661 crore or Rs 10.64 per cent compared to Rs. 525 crore or Rs 9.74 per cent a year.

 

In a big relief to State Bank of India the Delhi High Court has restrained nearly 45,000 employees of its five associate banks to go on a nationwide strike. This after the associate banks filed a plea seeking Delhi High Court's urgent attention on the matter. The court has restrained State Sector Bank Employees Association and All India Bank Employees' Association from proceeding ahead with the strike notice.

 

The Bank Communication to borrowerwho are unable to do this, will have to agree to a timeframe to pay back the loans. A process of negotiation is under way with a large number of clients. The bank's communication to borrowers differs from client to client. But, due to issues of transparency, its $2 billion exposure to diamond firms may be significantly lowered over the next two to three years," a person familiar with the development told.

 

Private sector HDFC Bank plans to focus on digital platforms in rural and semi-urban markets to achieve sustained growth in the coming years. The bank is well positioned to continue to grow faster than the banking sector both in retail and wholesale segmSents, HDFC Bank said in its annual report for 2015-16. According to the report, "over the next couple of years, the bank will leverage on its distribution strength and digital platforms especially in the rural and semi-urban parts of the country for a more sustained growth.

 

 

 

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