Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 19 October 2015


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Gold prices fell 0.43 per cent to Rs 27,360 per 10 grams in futures trade, amid a weak trend overseas and profit-booking by speculators At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in far-month February next year eased Rs 117


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL NEWS ? PRECIOUS METAL ? Gold Gold prices fell 0.43 per cent to Rs 27,360 per 10 grams in futures trade, amid a weak trend overseas and profit-booking by speculators At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in far-month February next year eased Rs 117, or 0.43 per cent, to Rs 27,360 per 10 grams, in a business turnover of 17 lots.December gold shed Rs 109, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 27,148 per 10 grams in 392 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking by speculators, a weak trend in overseas markets, weighed on gold futures. Globally, gold traded 0.45 per cent lower at $1,178.10 an ounce in Singapore today. ? Silver Silver prices rose marginally to Rs 37,596 per kg in futures trading as speculators widened positions amid a firming trend in precious metals overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in December was trading higher by Rs 21, or 0.06%, at Rs 37,596 per kg in business turnover of 2,054 lots.Likewise, the white metal for delivery in March gained Rs 19, or 0.05%, to Rs 38,295 per kg in 31 lots. Market analysts said positions enlarged by speculators in tandem with a firming trend in the precious metals overseas on speculation that the US Federal Reserve will delay hike in interest rates and weakening dollar, influenced silver prices at futures trade. Meanwhile, silver was up 0.22% at $16.16 an ounce in Singapore. ? Crude oil Crude oil prices rose sharply by Rs 62 to Rs 3,279 per barrel in futures trade as speculators widened their bets after it extended recent rally in Asia. At Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October contracts was trading higher by Rs 62, or 1.71%, at Rs 3,279 per barrel, with a business turnover of 8,967 lots.The oil for November delivery also moved up Rs 55, or 1.68%, to Rs 3,329 per barrel, with a business volume of 910 lots.Marketmen attributed the rise in crude oil futures to a firming trend in Asian trade on hopes that increasing demand and a decline in US crude production would ease a supply glut that has depressed the market for more than a year. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude prices for November delivery climbed 0.49% to $49.67 a barrel, while Brent for November also advanced 0.45% to $53.29 a barrel in late-morning trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ? Copper Copper futures were up 1.50% at Rs 344.95 per kg as speculators enlarged bets, largely in step with a firming trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME). At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November rose Rs 5.10, or 1.50%, at Rs 344.95 per kg, in a turnover of 4,681 lots. Metal for delivery in far-month February next year also rose Rs 4.80 to trade at Rs 350.60 per kg, with trade volume of 86 lots. Analysts said gains in copper and other metals overseas after Glencore has cut production this year and rising demand at the domestic spot markets influenced metal prices at futures trade here. ? Nickel Nickel prices were up by Rs 2 to Rs 686.20 per kg in futures market as speculators enlarged positions amid a firming trend overseas and spot demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in October gained Rs 2, or 0.29 per cent, to Rs 686.20 per kg, in a business turnover of 447 lots.The November contract gained Rs 1.80, or 0.26 per cent, to Rs 692.70 per kg in seven lots. Analysts said apart from increased domestic demand from alloy-makers, rise in select base metal prices in global markets, influenced nickel prices in futures trade. ? Lead Lead futures strengthened by 0.26 per cent to Rs 116.45 per kg as speculators enlarged positions on rising demand in the domestic spot market and a firming trend overseas. At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in October was trading higher by 30 paise, or 0.26 per cent, at Rs 116.45 per kg, with a turnover of 271 lots.The metal for delivery in November rose by 10 paise, or 0.09 per cent, to Rs 117.35 per kg, in a business volume of three lots. Marketmen said apart from pick-up in domestic demand, particularly from battery-makers, gains in base metals at the London Metal Exchange after bullish comments from miners and speculation that central banks in China and the US will continue easier monetary policies to counter weaker economic data, supported the upside in lead futures here. ? Aluminium Aluminium prices were up by 0.15% to Rs 101.60 per kg in futures trade as speculators enlarged positions even as metal weakened overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in October rose 15 paise, or 0.15%, to Rs 101.60 per kg, in a business turnover of 406 lots.The metal for delivery in November traded higher by 10 paise, or 0.10%, to Rs 103.15 per kg in eight lots. Analysts said the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade was mostly attributed to a firming trend at the spot markets on the back of rising industrial demand but metals weakness overseas, limited the gain. ? Zinc Zinc futures climbed 3.78% to Rs 112.60 per kg after speculators built up bets on the back of a firming trend overseas amid rising demand in the domestic spot market. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in October surged Rs 4.10, or 3.78%, to Rs 112.60 per kg, in a business turnover of 4,848 lots. Also, metal for delivery in November contracts gained Rs 3.95, or 3.60%, at Rs 113.60 per kg, with a business volume of 165 lots. According to marketmen, a firming trend in metal at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after Glencore Plc announced a plan to cut output by about a third, adding to signs that some commodity producers are willing to scale back supplies to combat slumping prices and boosting the prospects for a global deficit. Furthermore, uptick in demand at domestic spot markets from consuming industries too supported the upside in metal prices, they said. The metal used to galvanize steel jumped as much as 4.8 percent to $1,747 per tonne at the LME, the highest since September 18. ? NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS ? Soyabean A ban on futures trade in soybean, a demand from the processing trade, is not being considered or favoured by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi).Soybean prices in both the spot and futures markets jumped 20 per cent in the past month, on reports of crop damage in the major producing states of Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Soybean for delivery in November is trading at Rs 3,797 a quintal from Rs 3,162 a qtl a month before on the benchmark National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX). A similar jump was seen in the spot market. The sudden spurt has irked soybean processors, having to pay more for the raw input when prices of soybean oil and meal have been under pressure for several years, due to lower prices of competing products.Soybean's contribution in NCDEX's turnover rose to 11 per cent in September from eight per cent in the previous two months.Another industry body for oilseeds and oils, The Solvent Extractors’ Association, has urged Sebi to levy adequate margins and do what is needed to cool down prices. It feels there is 'artificial activity' in the futures market, which would harm farmers and meal exporters in the long run.Sopa's forecast for output this year is 8.4 million tonnes, as compared to its revised estimate of nine mt for last year. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has set the alarm bells ringing for the soyabean crushing industry by floating the idea of phasing out its cultivation because it cannot withstand bad weather or pests.The state, according to Chouhan, has lost the crop on 1.8 million hectares of a total 5.8 million hectare. Chalking out a long-term plan for other crops. The crop cycle needs to be changed as weather conditions are persistent for the last four seasons. Madhya Pradesh is known as the soya bowl of India and contributes 53-55 per cent of the country's production. From three million tonnes in the 1980s production has climbed to 5.5 million tonnes now.Soyabean is a sturdy crop and farmers have no immediate alternative. If they switch all of a sudden it will cause shortages in the domestic market.If Madhya Pradesh curtails production it will be an immediate loss to the local industry and business may move to other states like Karnataka,The Madhya Pradesh government is, however, more interested in paddy, moong, urad and even agro-forestry than soyabean.Farmers still use age-old varieties of soyabean like JS 335, JS 9560 or JS 9305. High-yield varieties like RVS 2001-4, JS 2029, 2034 and 2069, which can withstand pests and which have a shorter duration, will come to the field in three years. Till then farmers can try other crops, horticulture or even agro-forestry. Soya processors have to grapple with market speculation on crop condition and over the last five years prices of their raw-material have been hovering at Rs 2,700-3,800 per quintal. Also de-oiled cake exports have declined drastically.The state's crushing capacity is 12.5 million tonnes against soyabean production that has never exceeded 6.1 million tonnes.During the past five years the soyabean acreage in Madhya Pradesh has been 5.5-6.1 million hectares. The state has declared 114 tehsil (sub-districts) drought-hit this kharif season and a contingency fund of Rs 1,000 crore has been earmarked as interim relief for farmers. ? Refined soya oil Refined soya oil prices were up by 0.26 per cent to Rs 628.25 per 10 kg in futures trade on Tuesday as speculators enlarged their bets after pick up in demand in the spot market.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October edged up Rs 1.60, or 0.26 per cent to Rs 628.25 per 10 kg with an open interest of 14,350 lots.The November contract traded higher by 85 paise, or 0.14 per cent to Rs 623.90 per 10 kg in 70,895 lots.The rise in refined soya oil futures to pick up demand in the spot market amid restricted supplies from producing regions. ? Mustard seed Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.32 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for October 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,979 per quintal, up by 1.32 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,940 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,914. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 5,004. India produces 5.5 million MT to7 million MT annually and about 0.15 million MT is retained for sowing and direct consumption as seed which leaves about 4.8-5.1 million MT for crushing and extracting oil. ? Jeera Amid fall in demand in the spot market and surge in supplies from producing regions, jeera prices were down by 0.88% to Rs 16,275 per quintal in futures trade on thursday as speculators reduced their exposure.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in October fell Rs 145, or 0.88%, to Rs 16,275 per quintal, with an open interest of 75 lots.Likewise, the spice for delivery in September shed Rs 15, or 0.09%, to Rs 16,630 per quintal in 16,563 lots.Offloading of positions by participants owing to slackened demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts, mainly led to decline in jeera prices at futures trade. ? Chana Chana futures traded 0.75% lower at Rs 5,156 per quintal on thursday on profit-booking by speculators at prevailing levels amid easing demand in the spot market.In futures trading at the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in October fell Rs 39, or 0.75%, to Rs 5,156 per quintal, with an open interest of 190 lots.Likewise, the commodity for delivery in November moved down by Rs 28, or 0.53%, to Rs 5,223 per quintal in 65,160 lots.Besides profit-booking by speculators, fall in demand in the spot market at existing higher levels, mainly led to decline in chana prices at futures trade. For Quick Trial – 08962000225 Or mail us here: info@ways2capital.com or visit http://www.ways2capital.com/free-trial.php Contact 0731-6554125 Toll Free – 1800-3010-2007 Give a Missed Call for Free Trial - 09699997717 For Reports And Tracksheets - http://www.ways2capital.com/downloads.php


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