Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 02 November 2015


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Gold prices today fell Rs 76 to Rs 26,777 per 10 gram in futures trade amid a weak global trend.At Multi Commodity Exchange, gold delivery in far-month February next year fell Rs 76, or 0.28%, to Rs 26,777 per 10 gram, in a business turnover of four


MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

? PRECIOUS METAL

? Gold

Gold prices today fell Rs 76 to Rs 26,777 per 10 gram in futures trade amid a weak global trend.At Multi Commodity Exchange, gold delivery in far-month February next year fell Rs 76, or 0.28%, to Rs 26,777 per 10 gram, in a business turnover of four lots.On similar lines, the metal for delivery in December was also trading at Rs 68, or 0.26% down, at Rs 26,553 per ten gram, in business volume of 600 lots.Analysts attributed the fall in gold futures to a weak global trend where it held at three-week lows as investors assessed the strength of the US economy, with bets rising that the Federal Reserve will start to increase interest rates from December.In the international market, gold fell 0.88%, to $1,145.50 an ounce in New York yesterday.Gold continued to witness a massive sell off. The yellow metal settled at its lowest price this year, nearing the $1200 per ounce mark and logged its third straight weekly decline. Other precious metals also dropped heavily amid soaring equities and continued strength in the US dollar. Silver tumbled to a four year low, Platinum fell to a fresh 2014 lows while palladium slumped to a three-month low. Gold fell as the US dollar rallied post the Fed decision where it noted that that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions.Gold held near its lowest in three weeks on Friday and looked set to post its worst week in two months on expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise U.S. rates this year. FUNDAMENTALS * Spot gold was steady at $1,146.26 an ounce by 0032 GMT, not far from a three-week low of $1,144.20 in the previous session. * Bullion is down 1.4 percent for the week, the sharpest decline since the week ended Aug. 28. * The metal has been under pressure.

? Silver

Silver prices plunged by Rs 674 to Rs 37,158 per kg in futures trade today as speculators reduced their exposure, tracking a weak trend overseas.At Multi Commodity Exchange, silver prices for delivery in December contracts traded sharply lower by Rs 674, or 1.8%, to Rs 37,158 per kg in business turnover of 3,298 lots.Similarly, the white metal prices for delivery in far-month March 2016 contract slumped by Rs 670, or 1.74%, to Rs 37,847 per kg in business volume of 76 lots.In the international market, silver traded little changed at 15.89 an ounce in Singapore.Analysts attributed the fall in silver prices in futures trade to a weak trend in global markets after hints of an interest rate hike in December by the US Federal Reserve boosted the dollar.

? Crude oil

Crude oil futures slipped Rs 17 to Rs 3,085 per barrel today, in line with a weak trend in Asian trade, as traders cut down their bets.Crude oil for delivery in December was trading lower by Rs 17, or 0.55%, at Rs 3,085 per barrel, with a business volume of 133 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).Also, oil prices for November delivery moved down Rs 16, or 0.53%, to trade at Rs 3,012 per barrel, with a business volume of 3,035 lots.Analysts said the fall in crude oil futures is mostly in step with a sluggish trend in Asian trade as a midweek rally dissipated with no relief in sight to a global crude oversupply.Prices surged on Wednesday driven by bargain-hunting and a below-forecast rise in US commercial crude inventories, but concerns over the supply glut soon resurfaced as output levels remain elevated.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 23 cents to $45.83 a barrel while Brent crude was trading eight cents lower at $48.72 per barrel.

India's crude imports fell 7.4% in September from the preceding month as Essar Oil shut its refinery with a capacity to process 400,000 barrels per day for maintenance during part of period, tanker arrival data from sources and compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Analytics showed.India's oil imports from Saudi Arabia in September hit their lowest in a year as the Gulf nation ceded its top seller status to cheaper supplies from Iraq, the data showed.India imported 640,300 barrels per day of oil from Saudi Arabia last month, about 30% lower than in August, though still up 11.4% from a year ago.

? Natural Gas

Natural gas settled up 0.13% at 149.30 pushed higher to test 155 level mark at one point of time to move further away from the lowest level in more than three years on Thursday after data showed natural gas supplies rose less than expected last week. The US EIA said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended October 23 rose by 63bcf, below expectations for an increase of 69 billion. That compared with builds of 81bcf in the prior week, 87bcf in the same week last year, while the five-year average change for the week is an increase of 81bcf. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.877 trillion cubic feet. Stocks were 409bcf higher than last year at this time and 153bcf above the five-year average of 3.724 trillion cubic feet for this time of year. Stockpiles are set to reach a record by the end of this month. The EIA sees storage levels peaking at 3.956 trillion in November, which would top the November 2012 high of 3.929 trillion. 

? Copper

Tracking a firming trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and a pickup in domestic demand, copper futures edged higher by 0.15% to Rs 337.75 per kg today as speculators enlarged positions.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November rose 50 paise, or 0.15%, to Rs 337.75 per kg, with a turnover of 1,221 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month February was up by 45 paise, or 0.13%, at Rs 344.05 per kg, with a trade volume of 21 lots.Globally, copper for delivery in three months rose 0.2% to $5,141 per tonne on the LME and rising demand for the metal at the domestic market supported the uptrend.Marketmen said the rise in copper prices at futures trade was mostly in line with a firming trend in base metals at the LME.

? Nickel

Nickel futures today traded lower by Rs 4.20 to Rs 670.80 per kg, largely in tune with a weak overseas trend amid subdued demand at domestic spot markets.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in October weakened by Rs 4.20, or 0.62%, to Rs 670.80 per kg, in a business turnover of 938 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in November traded lower by Rs 3.90, or 0.57%, to Rs 676.80 per kg in 912 lots.Analysts said besides weak demand from alloy-makers at domestic spot markets, a weak trend in base metals overseas after the US Federal Reserve indicated it's still considering an interest-rate hike this year, reducing demand for commodities, weighed on nickel prices in futures trade here.

? Lead

Tracking a weak trend overseas and sluggish domestic demand, lead fell 0.44% to Rs 111.90 per kg in futures trade today after participants reduced their bets.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in November shed 50 paise, or 0.44%, to Rs 111.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 249 lots.Similarly, metal for delivery in October fell 40 paise, or 0.36%, to Rs 110.85 per kg, in a turnover of 248 lots.Analysts said, besides subdued demand from battery-makers at the domestic spot market, a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange after the US Federal Reserve hinted at a rate hike in December, boosted the dollar and reduced appeal of commodities, put pressure on lead futures prices here.

? Zinc

Zinc prices today fell 0.58% as speculators reduced positions amid sluggish domestic demand and a weak global trend.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc prices for delivery in November eased by 65 paise, or 0.58%, to Rs 111.30 per kg, in a business turnover of 318 lots.Likewise, the metal prices for delivery in October shed 50 paise, or 0.45%, to Rs 110.25 per kg in 453 lots.According to marketmen, the fall in zinc prices was due to sluggish domestic demand at the spot market amid a weak trend in metals at the London Metal Exchange, weighed down by prospects for higher interest rates in the US in December.

 

? Aluminum

Aluminum settled down -0.11% at 94.50 dropped tracking weakness from LME aluminium, which failed to trade in closing open outcry activity, was bid down 0.9 percent at $1,470 a tonne after aluminium on the Shanghai Metals Exchange hit another record low, fast approaching the 10,000 yuan mark as input costs drop in China. Outlook still look weak as concern about global demand after data showed weaker US economic growth and as investors weighed the prospect of higher US interest rates. 



? NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

For holistic development of the sugar sector, the Food Ministry has proposed direct payment of Rs 47.50 per quintal to growers out of total cane price of Rs 230 per quintal as production subsidy for 2015-16 season. The ministry has circulated a cabinet note in this regard for inter-ministerial comments. It has proposed that the balance cane price of Rs 182.50 per quintal will be paid by millers.

At present, sugar mills have to pay the entire cane price, called fair and remunerative price (FRP), fixed by the Centre. The FRP for this season (October- September) has been fixed at Rs 230 per quintal. FRP is the minimum price that sugar mills have to pay to cane farmers. The Food Ministry has moved a cabinet note proposing a cane production-linked subsidy for this season keeping in view the long term development of the sector.Of the cane FRP of Rs 230 per quintal, the ministry has proposed direct payment of Rs 47.50 per quintal as production subsidy to those farmers who have supplied sugarcane to mills that not only manufacture sugar but also ethanol, electricity and other products.

The total subsidy, estimated at Rs 1,250 crore, would be paid from the Sugar Development Fund (SDF). The subsidy amount will be transferred to dedicated bank accounts of farmers to be opened by millers. The cane production-linked subsidy, which is compatible with WTO regime, will offset cash-starved millers against cane cost and avoid piling up of cane arrears yet again this season.
This will also provide some relief to millers as the government without giving any incentive has mandated them to export 4 million tonnes of surplus sugar in 2015-16 season. Sugar export subsidy was given to millers in last two seasons to help them clear cane dues to farmers, but the same has been discontinued this time due to WTO objections. Sugar millers are facing liquidity crisis due to fall in sugar prices in the wake of glut in domestic and global markets.


? Jeera

Amid pick up in domestic demand and restricted supplies from producing regions, jeera prices edged up by 0.27% to Rs 16,420 per quintal in futures trade on monday as speculators built up fresh positions.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in far-month December rose by Rs 45, or 0.27% to Rs 16,420 per quintal with an open interest of 3,699 lots.Likewise, the spice for delivery in November contracts gained Rs 25, or 0.16% to Rs 16,145 per quintal in 15,159 lots.The rise in jeera futures prices to pick up in demand in the spot market amid restricted supplies from growing belts.

? Turmeric

Turmeric futures climbed 3.17 per cent to Rs 8,714 per quintal in futures market on Monday as traders enlarged positions on the back of rising demand in the spot market.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, turmeric for delivery in November month surged by Rs 268, or 3.17 per cent to Rs 8,714 per quintal with an open interest of 19,480 lots.The December contract shot up by Rs 266, or 3.06 per cent to Rs 8,970 per quintal in 4,130 lots.The sharp rise in turmeric futures to surging demand in the spot market amid restricted supplies from producing belts,Some exports inquiries also supported the upside.

? Mustardseed

Mustardseed prices retreated by Rs 57 to Rs 4,994 per quintal in futures trading on tuesday after speculators booked profits at current levels amid a weak trend at the physical markets.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, mustardseed delivery for delivery in most-active November contract plummeted by Rs 57, or 1.13 per cent to Rs 4,994 per quintal, having an open interest of 66,960 lots.The December contract was trading Rs 55, down 1.08 per cent at Rs 5,021 per quintal and open interest stood of 58,290 lots.Profit-booking at higher levels and muted demand at the physical markets mainly dragged down mustardseed prices at futures trade

? Soyabean

Soybean prices flared up by Rs 69 to Rs 4,287 per quintal in futures trading, on Monday tracking a firming trend in overseas markets as speculators widened their positions.The rise in soyabean prices at futures trade was mostly attributed to a firming trend in global markets and strong domestic demand.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, soyabean for delivery in far-month March contracts spurted by Rs 69, or 1.64 per cent to Rs 4,287 per quintal, in an open interest of 2,150 lots.Also, the most-active delivery in November was trading higher by Rs 48, or 1.20 per cent to Rs 4,042 per quitnal, with an open interest of 70,560 lots.

? Chana

Buoyed by rising spot demand and restricted arrivals from producing belts, chana prices shot up by 1.61 per cent to Rs 4,856 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday as participants widened their positions.Also, covering-up of short positions by speculators supported the upside.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in December month rebounded Rs 77 or 1.61 per cent to Rs 4,856 per quintal with an open interest of 54,660 lots.The November contract traded higher by Rs 72 or 1.53 per cent to Rs 4,773 per quintal in 32,100 lots.The recovery in chana prices to increased positions built up by speculators driven by pick up in spot demand against restricted supplies from producing belts.



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