Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 8 Jan 2018


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Gold dipped in choppy trading on Friday as traders cashed in gains from the metal's rally to 3-1/2-month highs this week and as the dollar rose even after weaker-than- expected U.S. payrolls data for December.


MCX Fundamentals

BULLION

Gold dipped in choppy trading on Friday as traders cashed in gains from the metal's

rally to 3-1/2-month highs this week and as the dollar rose even after weaker-than-

expected U.S. payrolls data for December. The metal remained on track for a fourth

straight weekly gain, something it has not done since April although it posted an

annual increase of 13 percent in 2017. The U.S. December non-farm payrolls report

was weaker than expected. The dollar dipped briefly, then rose as investors reck-

oned the data would not deter U.S. Federal Reserve from raising interest rates mul-

tiple times this year though at a gradual pace.

 

BASE METALS

Zinc hit its highest in more than a decade on Friday as concerns over market tight-

ness persisted, while copper hit a two-week low as Chinese investor interest was

muted with the Lunar New Year holidays looming. Zinc stocks held in London Metal

Exchange warehouses fell 250 tonnes to their lowest since late 2008, data showed

on Friday, down about a third from their October peak. The global zinc market

deficit widened to 36,900 tonnes in October from a revised deficit of 35,900 ton-

nes in September, the latest industry data show.

ENERGY

Oil prices fell on Friday, dropping from highs last seen in 2015, as soaring U.S. pro-

duction undermined a 10 percent rally from December lows that was driven by

tightening supply and political tensions in OPEC member Iran. Traders said political

tensions in Iran, had pushed prices higher. Oil prices have received general sup-

port from production cuts led by OPEC and Russia, which started in January last

year and are set to last through 2018, as well as from strong economic growth and

financial markets

MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange

but upside is limited. NYMEX natural gas gained more than 1% to trade above

$2.8/mmBtu after Friday’s sharp 3% decline. Supporting gas price is forecast of

cold weather in US which will keep heating demand high.

 

NCDEX Fundamentals

SPICES

As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017/18

(Apr-Sep) is 88,229 tonnes, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for

the same period. India's jeera exports in October increase by 37% on year to

10,402 tn. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 38% to 3.8 lakh hectares as on 1-

Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.8 lakh hectares at that same time.

Turmeric Apr contract fall for the fifth consecutive day on Friday mainly on

short covering by the Market participants tracking weakness in physical mar-

ket. The supplies have improved during last one month due to new season

arrivals, government auctions and lower exports data.

OIL & OILSEEDS

NCDEX Soybean closed 3.2% high last week supported by improving in

physical demand. Moreover, the supplies have been diminishing slowly in

the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during December com-

pared to last year.

Mustard Jan futures closed lower due to profit booking tracking weak physi-

cal demand. Market is still expecting for some demand side fundamentals as

downside looks limited. Currently, mustard is trading lower than its MSP

due to reports good progress in sowing season and steady demand.

 

GUAR COMPLEX

Guar complex futures traded higher last week. Good demand from stockiest

and guar gum producers and reduced supply at major trading centers helped

prices to trade on positive bias during the week. However, guar gum futures

settled marginally down on profit booking and closed the day at Rs.8931/

quintal,Total stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were

reported at 26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arri-

vals of guar were reported at 30800 bags yesterday at major trading centers

across Rajasthan.

OTHERS

Chana Jan futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking by the market

participants on reports on higher stocks and good sowing progress. As per

government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was

up 12.7% on year at 103.8 lakh hectares as on last week. As per government

data, India imported about 5.84 lakh tonnes of chana during Apr-Oct, up by

430% compared the last year imports.

MCX Jan Cotton rose for the eight consecutive week tracking firm interna-

tional prices, good physical demand and improved exports. CCI has procured

around 5 lakh bales this season of which 4 lakh bales have been procured

 

Calls of the Week (MCX)

SILVER

Silver prices opened flat in the last week and thereafter consolidated for the whole week in the range of 39000-39350

levels. Prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance in the last week and closed above the

same on weekly basis as appeared on the chart. Also market is sustaining above the level of 39000 indicating positive

trend in coming sessions. Prices are expected to go high above the level of 39400On the lower side immediate support

is placed around 3900 level.

 

 

NICKEL

Last week, Nickel prices opened higher and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 782.60. Previously

prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14)

has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone

placed around 830

 

RMSEED

NCDEX Mustard seed Apr future continued to trade in the range of 4070-4200 for the fourth consecutive trading week.

Price made the low of 4096 during the week and the high of 4174 and settled at 4143/quintal. Price gained by 34

points during the week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of long positions. Arrivals continued

to be steady in the range of 155000 bags. Market is forming lower high on its daily chart indicating selling trend. We

can see pressure on prices from higher level. And we are expecting market can be traded in range.

 

SOYREFINED

CBOT Soy oil trading March futures gained by 0.50 c/lb in last week and settled at 33.76. Traders are expecting major

change in the USDA monthly report which also supported higher soy oil price. The trading range for the session is

33.50-34 c/lb. In the domestic market NCDEX Soy oil Feb contract gained by 15 points and settled at 742.35/10 kg.

Price gained with higher volume and OI indicating long accumulation. The NCDEX Feb future is trading higher than the

import parity by 15 points. This may cap the upside in the near term on domestic bourse.

 

Calls of the Week (FOREX)

EURINR

In the initial part of the last week, EURINR made a high of 76.9975 but was unable to make the major psychological

resistance level of 77.0000 and closed at 76.6450 with the marginal loss of 0.24% on weekly basis. For this week, trad-

ers can adopt sell from higher levels strategy in it and below the level of 76.3525 it can test the level of 75.9125 during

the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 76.6525

 

GBPINR

Last week, GBPINR witnessed downside movement for the entire week and closed at 86.07000 with the overall loss of

0.55% on weekly basis. Technically it’s trading with negative RSI (below 50) and below 200 Days SMA and still looking

week on the chart. For this week, traders can adopt sell from higher levels strategy in it and below the level of 85.9700

it can test the level of 85.4725 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of

86.3025

 

 

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