Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 27 March 2018


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Gold futures rose over one percent in American trade to February 20 highs as the dollar index gave up ground following earlier data from the US the world's largest economy while


BULLION

 

Gold futures rose over one percent in American trade to February 20 highs as the dollar index gave up ground following earlier data from the US the world's largest economy while Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic spoke about the economic outlook at the Knoxville Economics Forum.Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust the world's largest gold-backed investment fund settled on Thursday at 850.54 tonne after rising 3% or 23.63 tonnes in 2017 while gold prices rose 13% last year the second yearly rise in a row. 

 

ENERGY

Oil futures rose nearly two percent in American trade heading for the third weekly profit in a row even as the dollar index retreated following earlier data from the US the world's largest energy consumer. 

 

Natural gas futures fell nearly one percent in American trade to February 26 lows as the dollar index rebounded from February 20 lows and following earlier data from the US the world's largest energy consumer which showed inventories fell slightly less than expected last week.

 

Base Metals

 

Deliverable copper stocks at Shanghai Futures Exchangeapproved warehouses increased for an eighth consecutive week in the week ended Friday March 23 while aluminium inventories showed a milder gain.Copper stocks increased by 10,441 tonnes to 307,435 tonnes this week up by 3.5% from the 296,994 tonnes on March 16. Stocks are now up by 92% since the beginning of the year.

SPICES

 

Markets recovered strongly for Jeer on falling arrivals amidst rise in demand at these lower levels.Prices are likely to find immediate Resistance at the psychological 15000 mark however.

Sideways trend was noted for Turmeric as prices faced strong resistance near the 7000 mark. Falling arrivals amidst rise in demand at these lower levels are likely to support prices. As new crop arrivals gradually come down with harvesting season getting over demand started poring in and supporting the falling market sentiments. Technically the daily charts are now strongly oversold.

OILSEEDS

 

Prices shot up for Menthaoil as demand started rising at these lower levels after the recent massive fall in prices. Higher sowing figures amidst lack of strong demand had kept any strong up trend limited. However traders do not expect further fall as these rates are anticipated to be very low.

As selling offers in spot market continued declining at lower rates futures prices stabilized and started bouncing upward. Moving forward bullish tone in soy meal shall continue helping prices to bounce from support levels. There is fresh news of Reuters stating further drop in Argentine soy bean production outlook due to persistent hot weather and this can support Friday trading session.

GUAR COMPLEX

 

Even as markets continued to show moderate dips for Guar prices are bouncing back strongly from these lower levels with market men expecting some moderate recovery by end of the week. Lack of strong demand higher stocks have kept trend down for Guar in short term even as long term trend remains positive. However firmness in Crude oil prices are likely to have positive impact on the export demand for Guargum in coming weeks.

Others

Overall trend remained slight weak for Kapas/cotton as weakness in International markets pressurized Indian rates. Crop damage and lower crop estimates for India however are supporting factors.

Soya oil gained after morning dip as buying interest started improving in soy bean and palm oil in addition to positive global cues.Strength in palm oil have been supporting the domestic soya oil market in recent sessions.

 

COCUDAKL

 

The primary trend of Cotton Oil is bearish from short term to mid term basis, and currently market trading with negative sentiment supported by volume as traders are interested to sell the commodity on higher level. The Cocudakl is now trading in oversold level. The oscillator is showing sell signal for short term to mid term basis Market can face the immediate support at the level of1385 while market can resist by the level of1450.

 

RMSEED

 

Technically April RM seed has a strong support at 4000 expect a moderate up correction if sustains above 4018 today. From a 1-2 month perspective traders expect maximum fall of Rs.200-250/qtl from current levels hence In comingmonths the April contract might have to test 38003825 support before consolidating and preparing for a reversal. For the current week Apr contract might find stiff resistance around 4100-4150.

 

 

 

 

 

USDINR

 

 

Last week USDINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 65.5850, however till the end of the week all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed near to previous week close at 65.2975. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as it was unable to break major resistance level of 65.7375 and trading below the 200Days EMA. For this week, if it breaks the level of 65.1900 then it can test the level of 64.8025 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 65.5025

 

 

EURINR

Last week EURINR Mar Futures started the week on positive note and made after that it traded range bound for the entire week. It made a low of 80.3575 during the week and closed at 80.6675 with the marginal loss of 0.09% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as it was unable to break major resistance level of 81.50 and trading with negative bias. For this week, if it breaks the level of 80.5900 then it can test the level of 80.0925 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 80.9025

 

 

 

Silver

 

As we can see market is trading in tight range of 39500 to 38000 from last couple of months. And market is getting back from the level of 38000 reacted as a demand zone and investors are looking interested to buy Silver from lower level. Technically for this week, we can expect upside movement in it as it was unable to break major support level of 38000 and trading with positive bias. For this week, if it breaks the level of 39000 then it can test the level of 39300 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 38800

 

LEAD

 

Last week Lead Mar Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 157.45, however till the end of the week all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed below previous week close at 152.30. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as it was unable to break major resistance level of 156 and trading below the 200Days EMA. For this week, if it breaks the level of 151.50 then it can test the level of 150.05 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 152.70

 

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