Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 12 Feb 2018


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Gold prices plunged on Friday as the dollar strengthened after the latest U.S. jobs report showed that the economy added more jobs than forecast in January and wage growth accelerated


BULLION

Gold prices plunged on Friday as the dollar strengthened after the latest U.S. jobs

report showed that the economy added more jobs than forecast in January and wage

growth accelerated. Gold futures for April delivery settled down 0.91% at $1,335.70

on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, prices

were down 1.47%. The U.S. economy created 200,000 new jobs last month, the Labor

Department reported Friday and average hourly earnings rose 2.9% from a year

earlier, the most since 2009.

 

BASE METALS

Zinc prices surged to the highest since 2007 on January 29th 2018 as falling stockpiles

suggested tight supplies, drives zinc prices to new highs. Shortages of refined metal

have seen stocks in LME approved warehouses fall to their lowest since 2008 at

176,275 tonnes. Aluminium ended up 0.3 percent at $2,225, having earlier hit a two-

week low as rising stockpiles in top producer China reinforce worries that the Chinese

market remains in surplus despite capacity cuts.

 

ENERGY

Oil prices finished lower on Friday to tally a loss for the week, as traders weighed a

steady increase in U.S. output against OPEC's ongoing efforts to drain the market of

excess supplies. For the week, WTI crude lost roughly 1%, while Brent declined about

2.8%. However at MCX due to weak rupee against US dollar it dropped only 0.1 per

cent.

Natural gas futures plunged more than 8 per cent for the last week at NYMEX

and around 7.5 per cent at MCX, after weather forecasts showed that

temperatures will not be as cold as previously expected.

 

SPICES

Slight weak trend prevailed for Jeer last week as lack of strong demand amidst

expected rising arrivals of the new crop kept pressure on prices. Shifting from

Dhaniya to Jeer due to the latter high prices last year ensured 35% rise in

acreage for Jeer in Gujaratas per traders. Production in Gujarat estimated at

around 2.75 lakh tonnes (approximately 50 lakh bags weighing 55 kg each) last

year is likely to touch 4.12 lakh tonnes this year as per traders.

Turmeric found strong psychological support at 7000 as markets recovered after

the recent fall. Sentiments still have not turned positive as new crop arrivals pick

up with limited demand as of now, even as short term recovery gets noted.

OIL & OILSEEDS

Improving spot demand for soy meal and frequent reports of lower crop size

of India and further drop in Argentine crop production outlook helped soy

bean to recover early week losses and finish on a strong note. We expect

same fundamentals to continue influencing soy bean prices and In case

soy meal demand remains firm then expect the new highs in coming

sessions.

Soya oil is currently trading in a moderate range and it seems that due to rising

prices of soy bean and soy meal, the physical market participants are forced to

price the commodity lower, just to maintain the crushing activity economically

feasible.

GUAR COMPLEX

Profit booking at the higher levels brought some dips to the rising rates for Guar

even as overall fundamentals looked strong from a medium to long term point

of view. Guarseed is facing strong resistance at 5000 as Gum trades near the

10000 mark. Medium term trend remains up due to rising concerns on

production front from recent crop losses due to excess rains in Rajasthan just

few months back.

OTHERS

As per the latest sowing data the sowing area covered is roughly 51.4 lakh ha so

far versus 57.8 lakh ha last year. Going by trade sources roughly 7-8 Lakh bags

are available in the domestic market in the form of stocked inventory and which

will be easily offsetting the requirements till February March i.e. arrival of the

new season crop.

Market are however likely to recover this week. Falling production prospects

from reports of crop damage in India had supported prices earlier. The

Agriculture Ministry estimated acreage during 2017-18 season (Oct-Sep) will

rise 12% last year. Yield is also likely to go up in view of good monsoon

 

SILVER

Silver prices reacted towards south with negative returns of 2.88 percent last week. However it is a choppy range where

prices are struggling for last one month. As the counter has got support near Rs.37500 level or $16.20/oz mark which

has been a strong ground area below the level we can see further selling pressure. Daily stochastic oscillator has come

in to selling territory. On the higher side prices may retest upside resistance zone of Rs.37800-38000 zone.

 

ZINC

Last week, Nickel prices opened lower and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 216.60. Previously

prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14)

has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone

placed around 830.

 

DHANIYA

The Dhaniya is long to medium term inbearish phase .Currently Dhaniya is showing some corrective move with less

volume indicating negative pressure in it. Caution note selling at lower levels seems risky we advise to sell Dhaniya at

higher level. The oscillator is on SELL signal and Dhaniya is coming down from overbought level For short term Dhaniya

is in sell position. Support for the Dhaniya is 5572. Resistance for the Dhaniya is 5860.

 

CASTOR SEED

Overall trend of the Castor seed new is bearish for medium long term .Currently Castor seed new is in strong down

trend with good momentum and the trend is supported with good volume. The Castor seed new is now trading in

oversold level. The oscillator is showing SELL signal For short term Castor seed new is in hold short position. Immediate

support for Castor seed new is 4050 .Resistance for the Castor seed new is 4270.

 

 

GBPINR

Last week we good saw profit booking in GBPINR Feb Futures from the higher levels and it made a low of 89.2400 during

the week. It closed at 89.6750 with the overall loss of 1.92% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further

expect downside movement in and below the level of 89.1400, it can test the level of 88.5525 during the week. One can

make sell position in it by maintaining a SL of 89.5525.

 

JPYINR

Last week JPYINR Feb futures started the week on flat note and after that traded positive for the most part of the week.

It made a high of 59.5425 during the week and closed at 56.1650 with the overall gain of 1.12% on weekly basis.

Technically for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it as it sustaining near to major resistance level and

above the level of 59.30000, it can test the level of 59.8250. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of

58.9925.

 

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